Going Forward into Next Year

I'm writing a shorter and far different post than what I had originally intended today, having writer's block as well as typing on my work laptop from a motel room in Ponoka. Regardless, now that I have thrown my support behind the Alberta Party while using social media to advertise this,I know that I'll need to be careful in what I post online. Online, everyone can view what you've said, as a lot of politicians have realized after the fact.

A lot of my thoughts are turning towards strategies and how to apply them to the upcoming provincial election (there has got to be betting pool around somewhere about if or when it will happen in 2011). I don't really want to say much in a blog that could be perused by people on the other teams, but a few things:

1. While there are a limited number of voters available, only 41% votes in the last election. So a lot more voters can be added into the mix, throwing off polling numbers. I think the most successful party is going to be the one that can engage the largest proportion of the remaining 59% as well as those voters who already vote.
2. I think that a generational shift is occurring in Alberta. The "youth" vote of the Gen-Xers and Gen-Ys are starting to become involved. The Nenshi campaign in the Calgary mayoralty race demonstrated that if you have a platform that actually has issues that people are interested in and, more importantly, a leader that is willing to openly engage in debate, the younger voters will get out. As noted in his Globe and Mail article, Éric Grenier stated that the inclusion of the youth vote would radically transform the House of Commons, with the federal Green Party winning an estimated 43 seats. Now that is something that parties in all levels of government should be taking note of!
3. Traditional polling is a dying metric. As most polling takes a random sample of voter intentions by landlines, they are missing the fact that an increasing number of people, particularly those under 40, are not using landlines anymore. Furthermore, polling generally asks who a person favours, not if that person is actually going to take the time to go and vote. For both these reasons, it is getting harder to really feel that the polling is a truly statistically relevant, despite what pollsters say.

Why am I pointing these out? Well, the first two points are about who is going to get the votes in the next election. None of the traditional parties in Alberta (PCs, Liberals, or NDPs) have been able to gain significant amounts of new voters since the last election. Instead, the Wild Rose Party has until now been the only party to really get some movement on that.

However, I feel the Alberta Party has significant momentum, particularly among the younger voters. There is also noticeable interest in rural Alberta, even out here in Ponoka, where I'm talking about it with some of my colleagues. There is an excitement that seems to be building that is not apparent with most other parties - people want something different and are looking towards the Alberta Party to provide that.

This desire for significant change that is driving people to learn about the Alberta Party is parallel to the greatly successful Nenshi campaign: people want change and they are willing to take a risk on the unknown if they feel that their wants, needs and values are being not only listened to, but understood and will be acted upon. Of course, a leader of the party must be elected and this person will be instrumental in how the public at large perceives the party. At the time of this writing, there are two potential candidate considering entering the race, but in the interim, Sue Huff is doing a great job in getting the message of the party to the media and, in my opinion, is so far greatly boosting its fortunes.

As for the third point that I stated, I think it is about believing in the party, its message and the people who are in it. Mainstream media in Alberta will not pay much attention to the Alberta Party until a critical mass is built. But as Nenshi and his people showed earlier this year, polls don't necessarily mean much and a superior campaign, ideas and people can beat out the top dogs.

So, as things wind down for Christmas and New Years, I'm already starting to think towards the long slog that will eventually (likely sometime in 2011 I think) lead to a provincial election. Then will the fun begin!

Happy Holidays!

To Start With

This is my first foray into serious blogging, although I've been posting off and on to my other blog, which is primarily targeted towards other software developers and tech geeks (such as how to set up Apache web server in Ubuntu to direct traffic on multiple aliases to virtual machines). However, in the past few months, I've been going back to my political science roots, taking part in the on-line Twitter (handle: @chrisjmcclure) conversations for first the Calgary mayoralty election. Now, I've become involved with the Alberta Party, which has grown past its beginnings to start gaining attention by the provincial media and the more politically involved members of the public.

While Twitter is fun and allows for specific information to be quickly disseminated to an audience, its very nature does not allow much detail or depth of conversation without a lot of work. So I figure I'll start posting my thoughts onto the web, knowingly opening myself up to the trolls (hi there!), while writing alongside serious writers (journalists, professional and regular bloggers) on one side and those who are professional or post-graduate political commentators. But isn't the web the great equalizer?

Regardless I'll be writing about everything political - my education is international relations, but with my involvement in the Alberta Party I imagine it will be mostly Alberta provincial for a while. I promise not to be too academic - hopefully...

So to actually get to the meat of this post - why the Alberta Party for me? Basically, the desire for change, but change in a way that is meaningful to the all of the people of Alberta. I'm 36, and except for four years in China in my late twenties, have lived my entire life in Alberta. I've have never had a different ruling party in power in the provincial government except for the PCs. To me this is not a healthy democracy. Furthermore without an effective opposition, we are left with a direction-less government with minor corruption and endemic mismanagement (health care anyone?). There is also hostility to criticism, with those outside the the beliefs of the party being labeled elitists, socialists or communists (or, as is en vogue "leftist pinkos"), regardless if that is even technically or ideologically correct. Anything to differentiate the "us" from "them".

As a university educated Gen-Xer centrist, who do you vote for if you dislike the ruling PCs? Liberals are an anathema to a majority of people in Alberta, even though the party had absolutely nothing to do with the NEP (provincial and federal parties are separate people!) and it was a generation ago. Moreover, they have never been able to propose a vision that is agreeable to people here. NDP is way too left on the political spectrum and Wild Rose is much to far to the right. I had been voting for the Alberta Green party, as I have deep interest in seeing environmental policies pursued, but that ended after they imploded a couple of years ago.

So the Alberta Party has appeared. And instead of confrontation, isolation and secrecy as exists with the current ruling party, the Alberta Party wants open collaboration. This seems to me as a very Canadian way of doing things and is something that we promote in schools, universities and even in the business world. It should also be something that is done in politics. Whether or not this is possible to do on a large scale remains to be seen. But with modern technology and social media, it is something that at least seems possible.

Earlier this week, I helped to form the Calgary-Buffalo Constituency Association, and surprised myself by volunteering to be one of the 'Officers-at-Large' for the constituency. However, this is the first chance I've seen in my life to make an impression on the way the province is run and it is too tempting to pass. I suspect that I'll be volunteering quite a bit of time in the coming months (around my MBA courses that I'm taking) as the party moves from a grass roots movement to a real political option for the next provincial election. Personally I'll be working towards helping to shape policy in the following areas, as they are some of what I consider to be important areas that are overlooked in favour of those that get more votes:

• Environmental issues - not just oil sands related, but water & land protection
• Election reform - moving towards a system of proportional representation, that would allow better representation for all Albertans
• Governance - an overhaul of how issues are handled from the people, to the government and to the bureaucracy

In closing I think it is important that people realize that although Alberta is a great province to live in, it can and should be greatly improved in many areas to reach the potential it has of being one of the best places in the world to live. For me, the Alberta Party represents the best option in provincial politics to attain that.