Going Forward into Next Year

I'm writing a shorter and far different post than what I had originally intended today, having writer's block as well as typing on my work laptop from a motel room in Ponoka. Regardless, now that I have thrown my support behind the Alberta Party while using social media to advertise this,I know that I'll need to be careful in what I post online. Online, everyone can view what you've said, as a lot of politicians have realized after the fact.

A lot of my thoughts are turning towards strategies and how to apply them to the upcoming provincial election (there has got to be betting pool around somewhere about if or when it will happen in 2011). I don't really want to say much in a blog that could be perused by people on the other teams, but a few things:

1. While there are a limited number of voters available, only 41% votes in the last election. So a lot more voters can be added into the mix, throwing off polling numbers. I think the most successful party is going to be the one that can engage the largest proportion of the remaining 59% as well as those voters who already vote.
2. I think that a generational shift is occurring in Alberta. The "youth" vote of the Gen-Xers and Gen-Ys are starting to become involved. The Nenshi campaign in the Calgary mayoralty race demonstrated that if you have a platform that actually has issues that people are interested in and, more importantly, a leader that is willing to openly engage in debate, the younger voters will get out. As noted in his Globe and Mail article, Éric Grenier stated that the inclusion of the youth vote would radically transform the House of Commons, with the federal Green Party winning an estimated 43 seats. Now that is something that parties in all levels of government should be taking note of!
3. Traditional polling is a dying metric. As most polling takes a random sample of voter intentions by landlines, they are missing the fact that an increasing number of people, particularly those under 40, are not using landlines anymore. Furthermore, polling generally asks who a person favours, not if that person is actually going to take the time to go and vote. For both these reasons, it is getting harder to really feel that the polling is a truly statistically relevant, despite what pollsters say.

Why am I pointing these out? Well, the first two points are about who is going to get the votes in the next election. None of the traditional parties in Alberta (PCs, Liberals, or NDPs) have been able to gain significant amounts of new voters since the last election. Instead, the Wild Rose Party has until now been the only party to really get some movement on that.

However, I feel the Alberta Party has significant momentum, particularly among the younger voters. There is also noticeable interest in rural Alberta, even out here in Ponoka, where I'm talking about it with some of my colleagues. There is an excitement that seems to be building that is not apparent with most other parties - people want something different and are looking towards the Alberta Party to provide that.

This desire for significant change that is driving people to learn about the Alberta Party is parallel to the greatly successful Nenshi campaign: people want change and they are willing to take a risk on the unknown if they feel that their wants, needs and values are being not only listened to, but understood and will be acted upon. Of course, a leader of the party must be elected and this person will be instrumental in how the public at large perceives the party. At the time of this writing, there are two potential candidate considering entering the race, but in the interim, Sue Huff is doing a great job in getting the message of the party to the media and, in my opinion, is so far greatly boosting its fortunes.

As for the third point that I stated, I think it is about believing in the party, its message and the people who are in it. Mainstream media in Alberta will not pay much attention to the Alberta Party until a critical mass is built. But as Nenshi and his people showed earlier this year, polls don't necessarily mean much and a superior campaign, ideas and people can beat out the top dogs.

So, as things wind down for Christmas and New Years, I'm already starting to think towards the long slog that will eventually (likely sometime in 2011 I think) lead to a provincial election. Then will the fun begin!

Happy Holidays!